The unofficial kickoff for the annual BACE in Vegas included reflections from all corners of the business aviation industry in a quest to make sense of a challenging, changeable time.
For those of us coming in from the East Coast, or Europe, the sun doesn’t rise quickly enough in Las Vegas. As usual, I woke up, sans alarm, at 4:57 am, ready to roll. Fueled by Tacos El Gordo from the night before, the action began at 7:30 am and did not conclude until I walked “home” from the Honeywell media event at the Las Vegas Country Club (very old school Vegas in a mid-century modern clubhouse) at 8:30 pm. Whew.
Big—and Fast—Jets
We covered Gulfstream’s G300 launch in late September in Savannah. The greater story lies in the rationalization of their product line that has occurred under the leadership of Mark Burns and team. I’m hoping to talk later at BACE with chief of engineering flight test, pilot Scott Evans, out at the static display where the G400 test article, G800 production model, and G300 cabin mockup grace the ramp.
Bombardier in a celebration fested by Cirque du Soleil gymnastiques announced its Global 8000 will aim for certification at a new top MMO of Mach 0.95. The nuances behind the number have been significant, and clearly already addressed in flight test to date, but the traverse to M1.2 during those tests opens up a slew of questions.
The Market
At the Newsmaker’s Luncheon—during which The Air Current’s Elan Head deservedly secured NBAA’s Gold Wing Award for business aviation reporting—the mood in the room smacked of cautious optimism (that has been a theme for a while), with the collective sentiment captured in two keynote speeches referencing the current political situation in the U.S. as well as the leadership panel convened following lunch.
Those two keynotes formed an interesting parallel. Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, gave an impassioned plea for Congress to work towards the same kind of bipartisan solution to resolve the shutdown as the one that had led to the FAA reauthorization bill of last year, and which was discussed by Rep. Sam Graves in his remarks just prior to Daniels’. We can all hope, but hope is not a strategy.
The uncertainty generated by global economic and geo-political forces underpins each of the market reports presented to the media on Monday, both by Rollie Vincent (JetNet IQ) and Christoph Kohler (WingX/JetNet) and by the Honeywell team, led by strategic planning manager Kevin Schwab. While the demand for business jets continues to rise—with 8,500 (Honeywell) or 9,700 (JetNet) new jets predicted to deliver over the next decade, forces from tariffs, to regulatory/shutdown headwinds, to black swan events on the geo-political scene are keeping everyone on pins and needles about the tenacity of that demand.
Leveling things out a bit, Michael Amalfitano, president and CEO of Embraer Executive Jets (and wearer of the purple socks, always spot on in style) noted the significant impact that large fleet sales have on their business. “What you have in terms of stability of strategic partners like FlexJet…is a great testimony to being able to find efficiencies in your production line, look for solutions that are going to bring more volume to that sector, and recognize that they’re a sales group in the sky.” However, Ron Draper, CEO of Textron Aviation, offered a balancing note–and one grounded in the company’s experience during the recession of 2008: “Fleet customers can change as the economy goes up and down. And so we like a mix of retail and fleet orders, and that’s what our backlog represents today.”
Brazil, Multimission in Focus
In several press conferences, the growth recently seen in Latin America has led to a greater focus on that market by OEMs seeking to capitalize on economic opportunity there, particularly in Brazil, where light jets and turboprops find great application in connecting remote areas of the country to its population centers. As an example, Daher opened its Brazilian office this summer and has now appointed its leadership team on site: Paulo Cesar Olenscki assumes the role of Executive Director for the operation in São Paulo, along with Rodrigo Cendon as the Customer Relations Director.
Also noted by Daher Aircraft CEO Nicolas Chabbert, the Tagine R&D project continues to roll along under funding by the French government. “This program is underway and is delivering papers and a cabinet full of ideas on the innovation side,” said Chabbert. “We took the Kodiak as a good bench to provide the mix between what could be advertised and what solutions can you do when it comes to the trade offs with the battery, and electricity. So this is the purpose of Tagine; it doesn’t necessarily end up with a product.”
In fact, the mountain of papers and data resulting from the joint exercise will be published publicly, according to Chabbert, so the company will determine following that report out if it will put into application the learnings gleaned from it. The problem presented by slow progress on improving energy density in the batteries currently available remains—capacity is roughly 50 percent of what it should be, he noted. And with collaboration on the FAA side that has come to a standstill during the current government shutdown, Chabbert would only remark that Daher’s progress on certification programs in process have paused.
Partnerships
Hartzell Propeller and The Blackhawk Group also announced their partnership ahead of BACE this fall. The plan is to leverage the service and support capabilities of both entities and expand their footprint in North America and Europe. Hartzell will supply its Top Props to Blackhawk for use on its upgrades and aircraft overhaul programs, and provide maintenance and overhaul facilities via its eight service centers.
We look forward to more time in the exhibit hall and at the static display on the official Day One of NBAA on Tuesday…more aircraft pics to come, along with fun times celebrating aviation with friends and colleagues.