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May 14, 2025May 15, 2025

Taking Our Pulse, the May 13 Version

One month since we left the shores of the Bodensee and our friends at AERO 2025 in Friedrichshafen, and it feels like a good time for a status update. Certainly enough has transpired to keep us all entertained in the aviation world, to say the least.

First, congrats go out to the AERO gang for a phenomenal success and a show that marked tremendous growth for the organization. With more than 760 exhibitors and 32,000+ attendees, the event clearly resonated with the moment.

SETOps in the Business Aviation Dome at AERO 2025

You have to be prepared to meet opportunity, and Tobias Bretzel and team took advantage of the opening left by EBACE’s recasting. AERO had made significant forays into serving the business aviation world more directly in recent years, with exhibitors such as Gulfstream attending last year with an aircraft, and more significant displays from Textron Aviation, Pilatus, and charter operators.

Those continued this year with Bombardier, Dassault Aviation, and Gulfstream providing an outdoor exhibit, along with Platoon Aviation’s sponsorship of what I’m calling the Big BizAv Tent (it went by the official name “Business Aviation Dome”). The venue provided space for various small exhibits, along with a café of sorts and a coffee/wine bar, along with a stage for forums, several of which I attended. This was perhaps the only off note; those hosted in the afternoon in particular suffered from too much sunlight in the wrong place, and strange cube-like seats that weren’t well suited for attendees needing to balance a notebook or device. Minor details, though.

The topics covered throughout the show were on target, however, including the next in the series on Single-engine Turboprop Operations (SETOps), and industry and technology updates. I admit I have been so distracted following the ongoing tariffs saga that I have yet to complete my analysis of the current state of SETOps, which honestly feels like it’s in a bit of a holding pattern while everyone figures out where the industry will land, tax- and delivery-wise!

Which brings me to the current state of affairs. Time to look back at the questions I posed in February, on the following topics:

Tariffs by the U.S. and retaliatory answers from Canada, Mexico, China
The charge to slash U.S. government regulations and only replace them at a 10:1 ratio
Egregious use tax implementation in Europe, targeting business aviation
Deeply cutting personnel reductions at key agencies, including FAA, DoT, and Department of Commerce
Privatization of the National Airspace System in the U.S.

On tariffs. Well, the good news, I suppose, is that the U.S. has apparently walked back from the outrageously steep 145% tariffs applied to many goods from China, down to 30%. And there’s a 90-day pause on many of the remainder, including goods from the EU, Mexico, and Canada. However, the chaotic nature of their application and the resulting retaliation means companies are still having a tough time planning for the future. A 90-day crystal ball just isn’t enough. I think of one good friend who has a publishing company, and he’s in limbo trying to figure out where to have books printed these days. The last container with a pallet of their merchandise on board left China back in mid April. Knowing what tariffs will apply remains a guessing game.

On regulations. We’ve seen more cuts in terms of personnel across government departments than the regs themselves, including at the FAA, and that pain lingers. At the same time, specific regulatory initiatives such as MOSAIC appear to be moving forward, with a final rule to be released late this summer, according to an update from the Light Aircraft Manufacturers Association at AERO.

On EU taxes. France went ahead with its tax on commercial flights, which includes business aviation, to the tune of “420 euros for a passenger on a business jet flying to a destination within the EU or European Economic Area to 2,100 euros per passenger flying to a destination more than 5,500 km away,” according to NBAA. Passenger fees for turboprop aircraft are roughly half the jet rates, which makes the SETOps mission all the more critical for operators to leverage if the capacity fits.

On personnel. I know folks personally who have seen their federal jobs cut, in what appears to be an arbitrary fashion. At the same time, the news this week has featured the lack of necessary staffing in operations including air traffic control, with Newark headlining the worst of the news.

On privatization. So, would a private entity do a better job addressing both the problems of National Airspace System modernization and personnel reductions and shortfalls? A broad coalition of aviation associations en dorsed the recent plan announced by Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy. Nowhere in the points outlined by Duffy over the course of the 3 to 4 year effort does the plan *appear* to include the broad stroke of privatization. We know we need an overhaul of the system…and if there’s political will to get it accomplished, I’m all for that. But this administration’s overarching theme has been to privatize across the U.S. government, so I cannot believe that won’t be the case here.

And it’s frankly too soon to tell, especially given the past 100+ days of 2025.

April 10, 2025April 10, 2025

Expecting the Unexpected: AERO 2025 Day One

If you would have asked me 100 days ago, I could not have anticipated the landscape we currently survey as we entered the week at AERO 2025 in Friedrichshafen, Germany.

Or could I? We certainly knew from past experience that tariffs might rear their head in the second round of this administration in the U.S. What I didn’t expect was the apparent tilting of the map of allies in the geopolitical sphere. For which I only have the answer: this too shall pass, along with other mercurial shifts we’re now learning to brace ourselves for.

Still, in the face of all these headwinds, the aviation industry presses forward, even as deliveries pause while the uncertainty over what tariffs will be applied, by whom, on what finished products and raw materials, and when. At this moment (3:40 am CET on Thursday, April 10), we have one answer, but that is guaranteed to change.

The Elixir two-seat trainer with a Rotax 912 is one of 12 aircraft on order for Egnatia in Greece. [Credit: Julie Boatman]

Elixir, Daher, Cirrus

Taking a moment to reflect on the success of 2024—a balm to soothe our collective nerves—the trio of OEMs holding press conferences on Wednesday morning reported gains last year in deliveries across models, and healthy backlogs on which to balance into the coming months.

Elixir Aircraft reported 33 of its two-seat training aircraft delivered overall, with up to 60 firm orders (two years’ production at current rates), while Daher delivered 82 total (56 TBMs and 26 Kodiak 100s/900s) with a 1- to 2-year backlog on those models. Cirrus pushed out 630 of its SR Series, and 101 Vision Jets, and also sits on a strong order book.

Daher Aircraft CEO Nicolas Chabbert (left) presents findings from the EcoPulse project with Head of Design Christophe Robin. [Credit: Julie Boatman]

Whether those hold is anyone’s guess. With little room on price to absorb tariffs, the landscape ahead is unclear. Nicolas Chabbert, CEO of Daher’s Aircraft division, put it plainly: “Are people ready to pay more? They are ready to pay nothing more… So who’s going to pay?” The OEMs can’t. Why? “Because we can’t. If aviation was hiding 20 or 30 percent margin, you’ve got to tell me.”

Todd Simmons, head of customer experience at Cirrus, highlighted deliveries of the SR Series and Vision Jet. [Credit: Julie Boatman]

While Cirrus keeps its primary manufacturing lines in the U.S., in Duluth, Minnesota, and other facilities, Daher has production spread between plants in France and Idaho, and a third line in development in Stuart, Florida. But even though there is a head start on transforming portions of the buildings at the former Triumph plant, Daher doesn’t expect to begin cranking out TBMs on that line until early 2027. Elixir is growing at La Rochelle, on France’s west coast, along with plans for reassembly in Sarasota, Florida, already underway, with FAA certification on track for later this year, according to Elixir co-founder and CMO Cyril Champenois.

But the idea that companies can flip a switch on a new production line fast enough to mitigate the pause in deliveries prompted by the tariffs on the table is ludicrous to anyone with intimate knowledge of aircraft manufacturing.

Business Aviation Leadership Panel

At noon, the new Business Aviation Show Hub (“the Dome”) outside of Hall A2 at AERO, buzzed with a collection of leaders convened to further explore these concerns. While workforce recruitment and implementation of technology such as AI have been at the forefront of conversation for the past couple of years, the global economic scene now overshadows positive gains in these areas.

New GAMA president and CEO Jim Viola joined Florian Guillermet, executive director at EASA; Carlos Brana, Dassault Aviation; Phil Straub, Garmin Aviation; Lannie O’Bannion, Textron Aviation, Deniz Weissenborn, Platoon Aviation; and Chabbert, hosted by Volker Thomalla, editor in chief at Aerobuzz.de, to give an assessment.

Focusing on what they can control—building on the sector’s safety record, attracting new talent, striving towards net zero emissions—those on the panel sent the clear message that they intend to continue cooperation across the pond. There’s an ocean there, between Europe and North America, but it’s not perceived as a barrier. Guillermet in particular called out this desire to continue the shared roadmap between FAA and EASA. “We need to have an approach that is building confidence; there is no reason not to have it.” While the treatment of business aviation in Europe faces intense bias against it, he expressed hope that by promoting the benefits to society generated by utilizing aircraft in a variety of roles those attitudes can be countered.

Flying is all about preparing for unforeseen events and building resiliency into our procedures and processes to withstand areas of turbulence. We must build this resiliency into our relationships as well, as it is clearly those we rely upon to ensure we stay the course. Ours is a global industry, interconnected in ways that resist the “dis-integration” pressure upon us. Like an SOP honed over time, this foundation forms our strength. Together, facing the unexpected with that in mind.

February 20, 2025February 20, 2025

GAMA 2025: Reading the Room

The year kicks off—at least from a general aviation perspective—with the annual GA Shipments and Billings Report produced by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) and its associated press conference held in concert with meetings of the association’s board and various committees.

With the National Press Club tied up, GAMA hosted the conference at the George Washington University’s Jack Morton Auditorium near Foggy Bottom in Washington, D.C., which honestly made for a more comfortable venue in light of the packed house that may have overwhelmed the Press Club’s more intimate quarters. Youth infused the production, which was executed by talented GWU students in concert with GAMA’s highly professional team.

The delivery and billing numbers didn’t surprise me—generally positive news there. Once more, much is at stake as the playing field shifts again before our eyes.

The vibe in the room sets the tone for the year. In 2020, the specter of COVID was just beginning, with lockdowns not yet in place in the U.S. but challenging already in Europe. In 2021, the Russian invasion of Ukraine had just transpired days before. Supply chain repercussions echoed through 2022 and 2023, with FAA Reauthorization looming large last year.

With as much change taking place on a daily basis as we’re seeing this first quarter of 2025, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a necessary change in course prompted by one of several factors in play:

Tariffs by the U.S. and retaliatory answers from Canada, Mexico, China
The charge to slash U.S. government regulations and only replace them at a 10:1 ratio
Egregious use tax implementation in Europe, targeting business aviation
Deeply cutting personnel reductions at key agencies, including FAA, DoT, and Department of Commerce
And, oh yes, privatization of the National Airspace System in the U.S.

To kick off, Pete Bunce, current chairman and CEO of GAMA, clearly bases the association’s strategy on tariffs based on what transpired with the first go-round of the current administration, when tariffs were floated and walked back. “We want to work with the administration on smart policies to be able to go in not to debilitate this industry,” said Bunce.

Using a typical GA powerplant—whether piston, turboprop, turbine, or electric—as an example, Bunce illustrated the impact on an industry that already suffers from a stressed supply chain. “[As for] tariffs and our supply chain…the challenges have been vast. And when you think about supply chain, it’s not easy to switch a supplier. When you go and switch a supplier, you’ve got to recertify that supplier. So that burns up resources from the regulators on either side of the Atlantic… So if we add tariffs on top of that to debilitate the industry, that can have very severe unintended consequences. Whether you’re talking about aluminum, whether you’re just talking about cross-border transactions—remember, when we produce an engine, parts and pieces cross borders all the time—if you’re starting to add tariffs to each one of those transactions, [they] become significant.”

Another echo of the previous charge to slash regulations may also have consequences that kill a lot of good work done by industry and government in partnership to streamline the certification process (MOSAIC), encourage bilateral agreements between FAA and EASA, and integrate UAS into the National Airspace System. “We in aviation can’t do anything without regs, policy, and guidance,” said Bunce, “and a lot of those are enabling regulations. How we interpret this, how it was in the first administration—2 to 1, now it’s 10 to 1—how we are going to actualize that to keep the momentum going forward on policy and guidance?”

An Oxford Economics impact study quantified the positive effect the business aviation industry has in the EU, in terms of jobs and revenue. [Credit: Julie Boatman]

A move in Europe to enact Draconian passenger use taxes on business aircraft forms a third distinct threat to the forward momentum of the industry. France stands to implement a “green” tax that would charge up to 2100 Euro per passenger on every business flight operating in the country. It’s an absolutely fallacious means by which to purportedly limit business aviation emissions—and would only serve to kneecap the very segment of the aerospace industry that is the incubator for innovation. It’s a sector that a recent Oxford Economics study commissioned by GAMA and the European Business Aviation Association reported 440,000 jobs and an economic input of 110 billion Euro into the European economy.

“But what are we seeing over there?” asked Bunce. “We are seeing policies that attack our sector of aviation but also taxes that hit every sector of civil aviation—and these taxes aren’t what we thought about three or four years ago that dealt just with sustainability. These taxes are debilitative taxes that are simply going to be tax revenue for France or for other countries out there. The French government just signed into law a tax policy that has the potential of charging every passenger on a business aviation aircraft turboprop or jet up to 2100 euro per flight.

“Think about that,” he continued. “If you have an economy in Europe that boasts that they are shifting from a strategy of the green deal to the green industrial deal, and your major pillar in that strategy is competitiveness, you just shot yourself in the foot by doing this. Because we all know it’s business aviation that gives companies advantage whether you’re doing business in Europe or you’re doing it around the globe.”

The grand irony is that France need only look across its landscape for the very businesses that are spurring the “green industrial deal,” such as Daher, which in its recent annual press conference reported on core business across all its pillars pushing emphatically towards the sustainable future. From AI optimization of energy consumption to the utilization of advanced thermoplastics within its TBM and Kodiak aircraft—and culminating in whatever the follow-on to Eco-Pulse will be—Daher is not blasé—or isolated—in its commitment to our collective future.

The already-declining EU market for business jets faces strong headwinds if tax policy such as that recently voted in by the French government comes to pass, or expands to other countries. [Credit: Julie Boatman]

But we’re not done yet… other specters raised in Bunce’s comments included the privatization of the NAS, an ongoing fight. This time around, it’s in the name of modernizing and streamlining the outdated air traffic control system.

However, within the FAA Reauthorization bill and associated appropriations, the funding and support for required upgrades to equipment and advanced training for personnel are already earmarked and ready for implementation. If acting FAA Administrator Chris Rocheleau—a former NBAA exec and well regarded by the GA industry—is allowed to move this F&E forward, these issues untangle towards resolution. “But why would we want to go into that fight again when we can go and look at making this system better,” said Bunce. “I think if we’re distracted by another privatization fight, we’ve just lost this unique opportunity that all of civil aviation is united and said, ‘Congress, you can help us by appropriating more money in F&E, but also letting us use the trust fund more wisely, working with the appropriators to do it very smartly.’”

The GA Leadership panel, composed of GAMA chairman Henry Brooks, of Collins Aerospace, Pete Bunce, outgoing CEO of GAMA, and Jim Viola, CEO of VAI and incoming GAMA CEO. [Credit: Julie Boatman]

Finally, large-scale and immediate personnel reductions across the U.S. government have made the news every single day since January 20. And the FAA has not been immune, with an initial reduction of 400 employees imminent—and this to an agency that is already running at about an 800-personnel deficit, according to various reports. It feels particularly galling to have that salvo across the bow in the wake of the mid-air collision at Washington National last month, in which it appears understaffing may have played a part.

To this, Bunce returned to the presumption that we can trust the administration to stand by its commitments when the dust has settled. “We’re trying to understand with them what the impacts are,” he said, “and the numbers don’t sound like they’re as many as they were first reported. We know that the morale within the FAA was boosted by…the declaration late last week [that] those that have direct responsibility for safety—their jobs are safeguarded. In fact, they aren’t even allowed the ‘early out,’ for lack of a better term, and that helps with morale. It says, ‘You are important to this industry.’ But we are going to lose some support people out there. That just means we have to exploit efficiency.”

In closing, Bunce noted the need to continue to build the stories that convey the wide-ranging and deeply felt impact general aviation has on the world. GAMA, in concert with AOPA and other aviation associations, commissioned a study of their own through PWC to quantify that impact.

It’s human nature to base predictions of future action on past behavior. My biggest concern lies in whether that can be applied to each of these threats—and how we can fortify ourselves as an industry to weather those ensuing storms.

Reading the room gave me the same feeling. Can we trust those now leading the U.S. government to listen to our stories and follow through on their commitments?